Renewables are forecast to overtake coal in global generation in 2026

The renewable transition is approaching a visible milestone in electricity generation: according to the IEA’s latest mid-year outlook, renewables are expected to take the lead over coal in 2026.

What happened

The International Energy Agency forecasts global renewable electricity generation to overtake coal-fired output in 2026, after reaching near parity in 2025. The IEA expects renewables’ share of the global electricity mix to rise from 33% in 2025 to 37% in 2027. These are forecast values, not final historical results.

Solar PV remains the largest contributor to supply growth. The IEA projects around 600 TWh of additional solar generation in 2026 and expects solar PV to overtake wind as the second-largest renewable source of electricity generation after hydropower.

Why it matters

The milestone is not only about adding more generation. The IEA also points to grid expansion and modernisation, system flexibility, stronger locational price signals and more efficient use of existing infrastructure as critical conditions for integrating variable wind and solar output.

The result is a more demanding project brief: renewable assets must be evaluated alongside network capacity, storage, demand patterns and operating constraints. Generation growth and system design can no longer be planned as separate conversations.

Newman alignment brief

Newman aligns its work with that integrated view of the power system. Our focus is to connect renewable generation with the engineering, procurement, financing and digital workflows that help clarify how a project will be delivered and operated.

This is an editorial alignment with the IEA outlook, not a claim that Newman participated in the forecast or in any project referenced by the report.

Source

IEA — Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026, Executive Summary, report launch 23 July 2026. The IEA notes that 2026 and 2027 figures are forecasts.

Cover image is illustrative; it does not depict a Newman project or client site. Solar Farm at KSC (KSC-20210405-PH-NAS01 0001) — Wikimedia Commons, NASA, public domain.